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 Thorlord |
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 Posted:
Tue Nov 21, 2006 9:58 pm |
Golden Chocobo
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Numbers Game
ok.. so sony said that 400,000 PS3's would be shipped in North America. and 100,000 shipped in Japan.
20,000 were reported to be sold on Ebay.
now for some interesting facts:
Sony missed their shipping target of 400,000 by.... 200,000. thats right only 200,000 PS3's were shipped to the US. thats means they missed their shipping target by 50%
80,000 were sold in japan. not as bad, only missed the target by 20%
now the math. 200,000 PS3's in the US and 20,000 were sold on ebay. that means that 10% of the PS3's sold were sold on e-bay. or 1-in-10 people.
sony is saying that 100,000 will ship out each week to supply the PS3 and aims for 1million by the end of the year. Estimates are that sony MIGHT meet 400,000 by the end of the year.
so that would mean 200,000 over teh couse of a month. or more accureately. 50,000 a week.
there were about 8 consoles per store with 200,000 shipped. that means about every 2 weeks each store will have close to 4 consoles.
NOW consiter how there are still alot of people who want one to give, or have, for chiristmas/hollidays.
THEN consiter how sony has to stockpile some for the Europe/Australia launches.
in estimation. it will be a VERY long time before a PS3 is easy to purchase. my guess is about 6 months. at which there may be.. 2 million out. and even MORE people wanting to get them as they are seeing more and more games made available. and by the end of 2007 i would assume 5 million launched world wide. where at that point the system building process will get a kickup and by 2008 have a steady delivery of the console for purchase at any time.
im not saying it will be until 2008 before you can get the system no, im saying it will be hard to get one until 2008. but any dedicated fan can just wait a few hours before a store opens to get one. (ask the manager or employees when they will be getting the shipments of the console in)
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| Thorlord |
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Posted:
Wed Nov 22, 2006 2:15 am |
Golden Chocobo
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[continued]
so why does this make any difference?
take this into account. this is so far an estimation of how things are going. production will ramp up eventually. and more PS3's will start being shipped. there could be more PS3's than estimated by those dates.
but the problem lies in that game developers will start moving away from the PS3 since the platform lacks the audience of the PS2. which will mean that the rumor of MGS4 being made for the 360 will be true, along with many 3rd party exclusives for the Playstation brand. simply because of three things:
1: the PS3 has a smaller audience than the wii and 360
2: the PS3 is extremely hard to make games for and will increase budget to make a PS3 game
3: the hardware isn't too much more powerful than the 360.
let me put it another way:
would you make a game for a console that has 2 million consoles sold and cost you $20 million in development?
or would you make a game for a console that has 7 million consoles sold and cost you $13 million in development?
exactly, for the PS3 to live and get ontop of the console war, the NEED to ship ALOT of PS3's. consitering how the 360 has just hit 7 million consoles sold BEFORE THE HOLIDAY SEASON. sony NEEDS to hit 4 million in 6 months to stay in the game. and if they want to beat the 360, they NEED to pass the 360 in console sales in 2 years.
because if they dont, they will be losing exclusives to the 360, and that will start a downhill slope.
mind you, i really, REALLY dont want the Playstation brand to stop. and while i hate sony, and i dont like the playstation console.. i actually want them to beat the 360 in console sales, if not just tie them.
why?
Competition is the best directive. Microsoft has shown that when they have real competition they can make an amazing product, but if they become as cocky and arrogant as sony has then the xbox console quality will plumit.
and inversely, with very equal console sales to the 360 would mean that sony lost some of its market, and would more than likely wake them up to how sloppy and arrogant they have been. which would turn them into a more quality-driven company.
Nintendo is going their own route, and by having an innovative console thats cheap, they are pratically in a market of their own. mainly because people are seeing themselves buying both a Wii and another next-gen console rather than just a wii.
to sum up: the game is simple.. can sony ship enough PS3's before developers lose interest?
http://www.videogamevs.com/argument.php?184
[edit] apparently sony doesnt agree with me or analysists.
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_________________
No i am not selling or trading my rares. i am a collector.
"how secure can you feel
when those hackers come to steal
my PC firewall is made of steel
the mac's 'Protection' isn't real"
Thorlords 1,000,000 gil contest!!!
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| drewy |
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Posted:
Wed Nov 22, 2006 1:44 pm |
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From reading around the internet today alot of people seem to have been geting PS3's. With alot of the big stores getting about 20 consoles each. Its probably still not going to make the 400,000 but at least some consoles are being shipped.
I agree that Sony will lose some exclusive games. They lost 2 exclusive games today, Fatal Inertia and Bladestorm. I think even with a small userbase Sony will pull through simply because they have the best 1st party developers. Games from these developers will get the sales up loads even when 3rd parties may be loosing interest. There is also no way MS can take first party games away and these will give alot of exclusive by the end of 2007. Off the top of my head there is Naughty Dogs Untitled Project, Motorstorm, F1 Chamionship, Lair, Heavenly Sword and probably others to come in 2007. There is not going to be a lack of exclusive games and these will keep the sales up.
TBH for the first year of PS3 I think even if the games were poor the console will still sell. I just think Sony will catch up to the 360's total before the end of 2007. This is just from people who will buy the console purely because of the Playstation brand and not by the games on it.
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| Thorlord |
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Posted:
Wed Nov 22, 2006 4:58 pm |
Golden Chocobo
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| drewy wrote: |
From reading around the internet today alot of people seem to have been geting PS3's. With alot of the big stores getting about 20 consoles each. Its probably still not going to make the 400,000 but at least some consoles are being shipped.
I agree that Sony will lose some exclusive games. They lost 2 exclusive games today, Fatal Inertia and Bladestorm. I think even with a small userbase Sony will pull through simply because they have the best 1st party developers. Games from these developers will get the sales up loads even when 3rd parties may be loosing interest. There is also no way MS can take first party games away and these will give alot of exclusive by the end of 2007. Off the top of my head there is Naughty Dogs Untitled Project, Motorstorm, F1 Chamionship, Lair, Heavenly Sword and probably others to come in 2007. There is not going to be a lack of exclusive games and these will keep the sales up.
TBH for the first year of PS3 I think even if the games were poor the console will still sell. I just think Sony will catch up to the 360's total before the end of 2007. This is just from people who will buy the console purely because of the Playstation brand and not by the games on it. |
Very thoughtful and accurate! welcome to Funender, i look forward to your insight on other issues as well.
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_________________
No i am not selling or trading my rares. i am a collector.
"how secure can you feel
when those hackers come to steal
my PC firewall is made of steel
the mac's 'Protection' isn't real"
Thorlords 1,000,000 gil contest!!!
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| drewy |
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Posted:
Wed Nov 22, 2006 5:26 pm |
High Summoner
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Thanks for welcoming me Thorlord. You seem to make alot of very good threads in the gaming section.
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| Thorlord |
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Posted:
Wed Nov 22, 2006 5:48 pm |
Golden Chocobo
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| drewy wrote: |
| Thanks for welcoming me Thorlord. You seem to make alot of very good threads in the gaming section. |
while i make alot, i'm not always right, and from your post i can say that we should have some good debates and discussions.
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_________________
No i am not selling or trading my rares. i am a collector.
"how secure can you feel
when those hackers come to steal
my PC firewall is made of steel
the mac's 'Protection' isn't real"
Thorlords 1,000,000 gil contest!!!
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